That seems the one sure outcome, likely! Congress, a new sort of oligarchy!
BJP’s build-up of allies shows anxiety and uncertainty!
Why, the Congress confusion at many levels leaves it not with much choice and maneuverability!
The BJP party and government has had its rounds of allies build-up almost complete. In some of the major states like West Bengal, even in other Southern states like Telangana, Andhra Pradesh show that it has not much space to push ruling parties beyond some limits. TDP is out, KCR’s party too seem not very accommodative. In Kerala too the scope for BJP making any headway is very limited. In TN it is very plain that the BJP resigned to whatever was offered by the already weakened AIADMK which itself is seeking some help from the BJP for its very survival at least for the next two years till 2021.
If the incumbent party is simply allowed to survive both the AIADMK and the other small parties that would now like move more closer to
the current alliance tie-up, such parties like the CPI, CP (M) and the Thol Thirumavalavan party and others, both individuals as well as parties in existence like the DMDK and others would be only too happy to let them do and act in whatever manner.
As for the DMK-Congress tie-up too seems to be a patch up of mutual existence. There is no surety that the DMK-Congress might sweep the
elections in any certain manner. The 2014 election results must be a warning to the two parties and that may one reason why even the
Congress higher ups, not to speak of Rahul Gandhi or others like Ghulam Nabi Azad didn’t think it worthwhile to descend on the Southern state.
In one sense, the years of Sonia Gandhi at Delhi saw to it that the party was left to die almost a natural death! Just to please and
facilitate the DMK’s own agenda. The people of Tamil Nadu haven’t forgotten such high corruption like the 2G scams and Manmohan Singh’s own contribution! The Congress party too now changed into a coalition of like-minded vested interests! A sort of new oligarchy! Everyone is a leader, none is a party worker!
So, it is anybody’s guess how the DMK-Congress combine would fare. So too other states. In UP, Mayawati took 38 seats, SP 37. The two have left out the Congress! In Delhi too AAP is out! So, what chance for Rahul Gandhi to lead the next government?
So, too in Maharashtra. It looks that the BJP seems to be resigned to an uncertain allies formation and given the aggressive nature of the Opposition parties united challenge, given the leadership of BJP leaders like Yogi Adithyanath, there is so much uncertainty and public perception about the very atmosphere in India with so many unpromised promises the BJP seems resigned to an Atal Bihari era of multiple allies joining together to give the BJP another chance. But this is again conjectural and the media is yet to firm up the public mood, given the latest sombre mood after the Pakistan’s brutality and that has given the Indian public a sense of heavy mental burden of living with so many unfulfilled promises.
The fallout of the GST and black money demonitisation is also there in a noticeable way. The media is subdued but at least one major South Indian mainstream paper, The Deccan Herald has given a detailed analysis about what happened in 2014 and what parties won what number of seats in every state.
As for the Congress case it looks still that the party has not yet given a firmer view of things. Rahul Gandhi did much than what a
leader of his age and experience could do. It is a measure of things that Rahul all alone had succeeded to galvanise the party and single
point attack on the Prime Minister Modi has unnerved the PM and very likely to shape up the over-built up optimism and confidence of the
party.
Yes, the BJP has the money and muscle power and the RSS could also play some role. But as for the Congress party, even the entry of Priyanka Gandhi, it seems at this point unlikely to shake the party’s looming lethargy and also the large concentration of vested interests, a rot of oligarchy with each one leader around the Sonia establishment to win her favour and catch her attention. It looks Sonia’s times are past a long time ago. The dynasty element is strong and it might not pull votes. The new generation, the 20-50 voters, the younger generation might not know all the greatness of the Congress party.
Today, the party is still burdened by its past sins. The large unelected units, from the CWC to AICC are all seem to be quite unrepresentative of the moods and opinions and the perceptions of the new comers among the large voters groups.
So, by looking at the small number of parties and also caste groups and the quota politics might give other parties, other than the two large partisan edges to carry the vested interests among the small caste groups a sense of indemnity with non-BJP and non-Congress parties only.
In one significant sense, a coalition government led by either one of the larger party or another acceptable consensus candidates, be it Chandra Babu Naidu or Mamata or even by Mayawati is likely to give a more open government without the disabilities to which one-person dominated party or government is likely to give a more broad-based leadership to the country and with better governance principles.